Monday, July 11, 2011

WHY HE'S C"CY YOUNG" SABATHIA

With CC Sabathia’s most recent 1-0 complete game shutout over the Rays, he moves to 13-4 and regains sole possession of the MLB lead in wins. He also drops his ERA to a phenomenal 2.72, leads the league in games started with 20, is 2nd in innings pitched (1st is Justin Verlander), and is currently on a career best 23.2 inning scoreless streak.

Those aren’t just ace numbers, those are Cy Young Award winning numbers. Sure, some guys have a lower ERA, notably Jered Weaver, but let’s ask ourselves: Do those guys pitch in the AL East? Weaver doesn’t, and if he did, his ERA would certainly balloon moving from the pitcher friendly AL West. Josh Beckett does, but as good as he’s been he’s nowhere close to being the workhorse CC is. Simply, CC is the best of the best because he works harder than anyone else and produces numbers that can be called elite.

But you already know that CC’s been a monster this season, and you surely already know that he is, as always, in the Cy Young Award race. I’m not writing to tell you that he has a chance; I’m writing this to tell you why he’s the front runner.

Don’t misinterpret what I’ve just said, if the season ended tomorrow, Justin Verlander would likely take home the award and Weaver would be a very close second. CC Monster wouldn’t do too badly for himself, he’d likely come in 3rd or 4th in the voting, but he wouldn’t win. What I’m saying is if CC’s performance for the rest of the season follows the typical CC Sabathia pattern, he’s got it in the bag.
Why? It’s simple: CC is, and always has been, a second half player. I know it’s hard to believe, going into the second half of this season his ERA was barely a hair over 3 and leading MLB in wins. Notice how he’s gotten even better as time has progressed. As I mentioned, CC has not allowed a run since the second half of the season began, and as a result his ERA has quickly gone from what one would call great, to what one would call phenomenal. This is no coincidence, he’s always been one to pick it up in the second half.For example, flashback to his pre-Yankee days. CC spent the first half of 2008 with the Cleveland Indians, and posted a respectable 3.83 ERA to go along with a 6-8 record. He was traded to the Brewers right before the second half of the season, and proceeded to go 11-2 with a downright godly 1.65 ERA. Even more impressive, a ridiculous 7 of his 17 starts with the Brewers were complete games.I use this season as an example because it’s easier to see the difference between the two halves because he was traded. However, such a sudden and sharp increase in dominance is nothing unusual for CC. Looking back on 2009 all we remember was CC coming 4th in Cy Young Award voting, winning the ALCS MVP, and leading the team to their 27th title. What we don’t remember is how in the first half of 2009, his ERA hovered around 4 and he barely recorded a .500 record. There’s no way to argue against it: CC is a second half of the season type of guy.

The point here is, his first half of this season is by far, the best he’s ever had. If his first half was that much better than he usually is in the first half, shouldn’t we expect the second half to be better than ever? If he follows his normal pattern, expect second half dominance, that's my opinion anyway.




--Grant Cederquist, BYB Staff Writer

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