On Saturday, Casey posted a piece discussing the possibility of a trade for Ubaldo Jimenez to fill out what appears to be a deteriorating rotation. Hughes is improving from his horrific start, but Bartolo has imploded recently, Garcia has shown signs that he's ready to follow suit, and AJ has been AJ, which is to say good, but not a true #2 guy.
(Photo: Neil Miller)Now, it is true, maybe Bartolo Colon will bounce back and be the #2 guy like he seemed to be in the first half and maybe Phil Hughes will suddenly reach his full potential to be the second guy.
Hell, maybe even AJ Burnett will suddenly be able to actually command the ball. And what about Freddy Garcia, lest game could have been a fluke, or a result of sign stealing and he come back strong next time. However, let's not hope, we need to act now. So what should we do?
The answer is pretty clear; the Yankees should trade for Jimenez, and form the best 1-2 punch in the AL for at least the next 3 years.
Jimenez's 2011 stats (4.08 ERA, 5-8) certainly seem like a huge step down from those of his Cy Young Award campaign 2010, so to the uninformed reader, a blockbuster trade for him may seem like a terrible idea. After all, who would trade the farm for a #4 guy? Never fear, I'm here to show you why he's probably still one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball through the use of splits, sabermetrics, and trends. Let's start with...
Home vs. Away Splits
Jimenez pitches for the Colorado Rockies, who play in the notoriously hitter friendly Coors Field. Routine fly balls become majestic bombs at the high elevation and pop outs become bloop doubles in the ludicrously oversized outfield. Even when the ball appears to be headed right for an outfielder, the bizarre floating at such an elevation can make it incredibly difficult to field. Jimenez's ERA at home is a Javier Vazquez-esque 5.89. His phenomenal 2.28 ERA in away games couldn't be any more different. The Rockies have never once had a true ace, and this is why: you can't be an ace in Coors. The simply ridiculous .360 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) Ubaldo has allowed to opposing batters supports this theory. When the ball went in play, it was a hit 36% of the time. Compare this to his very low .215 BABIP in away games and it becomes perfectly evident: Jimenez is one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball in every park except for Coors.
FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching)
FIP provides a fairly accurate estimate of what a pitcher's ERA would be assuming his fielders neither botched plays that didn't go down as an error, nor made brilliant plays. Ubaldo's season FIP is 3.41, which means that if it weren't for a) shoddy defense by the Rockies or b) the difficulty of playing the outfield in Coors, his ERA would be closer to a very solid 3.41.
ERA+
Adjusted ERA is just what its name says it is, an ERA that is adjusted based on what fields a pitcher has been pitching. His season ERA+ is 111 (below 100 is below average, over is better than average). This is by no means absolutely dominant, but it certainly indicates that if he weren't regularly pitching in Coors Field his ERA would be much better, likely in the mid 3s.
Recent Record/ERA
In Jimenez's last 6 starts, he's 4-1 (his lone no decision came against the White Sox when he went 7.0 innings and allowed 2 ERs) with a 3.05 ERA. In the month of June he had a 2.45 ERA, and he's continued that success by posting a 2.79 ERA thus far in July. This is a massive improvement over March/April (6.75 ERA) and May (5.45 ERA). Why the sudden increase? He went through Spring Training and much of April injured and did not have ample time to build his fastball up to it's usual blistering 96-99 mark, and began the season missing 2-3 MPH. As we saw with Hughes earlier this year, 3 MPH off your fastball can be all the difference. Jimenez has built back up to his regular velocity lately. In his past two starts he regularly hit 96 and 97 MPH on the gun with huge movement. His struggles seem to be behind him and he appears to be ready to show us why he started for the NL in the All-Star game last year.
So, while his season marks don't look up to standards by traditional statistical measurements, his sabermetric stats show that he's been much better than advertised, Coors Field has clearly screwed him over, and he's improving rapidly.
Casey touched on what it would cost to bring Jimenez to the Bronx in WHY THE YANKEES AND THE ROCKIES ARE CHATTING. In my opinion, it would cost no less than Jesus Montero, Dellin Betances (not Manny Banuelos, pitchers like him come around rarely, and even more rarely are they lefty,)
(In Photo: Manny Banuelos)Hector Noesi/Adam Warren/David Phelps, and some filler guys (Jorge Vazquez could potentially seal the deal). I've praised many of those guys to high heaven recently, so you may be surprised to hear that if I was Brian Cashman and the Rockies were going to accept this offer, I'd pull the trigger faster than you can say “Yankees win, theeeeeeeeeeeeee Yankees win.”
I've had nothing but praise for Montero since I joined, but there's no way to deny that his stock is dropping. He's hit for a respectable .288 average, but his OPS is down 110 points from last year (.870 to .760). Even worse he's thrown out a dismal 17% of base stealers. He's shown improvement lately, batting .297 with an .867 OPS in his last 2 games (2 home runs), so he's certainly not a lost cause and is still considered a top 10 prospect. This value is enough to make him an excellent center piece in a deal, and the Rockies won't have to worry about putting him at catcher because word is they'd want to train him to be Helton's heir at 1st base. Austin Romine has swung a hot bat this year and is excellent defensively, not to mention that whether or not he's hitting Russell Martin has guided the pitching all year, so perhaps sticking with one of them is the better idea. Of course Gary Sanchez might be better than any of the 3, so we may end up losing nothing by trading him anyway.
(In Photo: Dellin Betances)Dellin Betances is a little harder to trade since he's been excellent this year, but if his replacement is Ubaldo Jimenez, we aren't losing much. Jimenez is a similar pitcher to Dellin (high K/9, good ground ball rate) and has the advantage of actually being in the MLB. Besides, Betances grew up in New York. The instant he's a free agent he'll happily sign to come right back home. Or maybe he'll be a flop and we'll laugh as Jimenez mows down opposing lineups. Everyone else I mentioned for the deal is standard fare that comes along in practically every draft and would be replaced shortly.
The price is high, but for a 27 year old ace under team control through at least 2013 (possibly 2014) that costs a mere $17.5 million for the next three seasons combined, it should be. The Rockies aren't actively shopping him, but they've said they'll listen if teams want to talk top prospects. They've been scouting the Trenton Thunder and SWB Yankees teams extensively, and the Yanks have had scouts watch Ubaldo. The potential for a trade is definitely there, and it could save the season. But only time will tell if such a deal is me.
--Grant Cederquist, BYB Staff Writer
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